I have a huge crush for the old style flip-a-coin. It was one of the first things I learned while I was a kid. I’m an avid collector of old coin sets, and have often considered it my lifelong goal to own a set.
My parents taught me that you should flip a coin five times before you really know whether or not you can do it. One of the many reasons that I’m so obsessed with the coin flip is because I think there are some very subtle nuances that the coin has to show you before you can really know if you can do it. The coin flips seem to be slightly more difficult the first time you do it.
I’ve never actually seen a coin flip that has been a huge success, but when I was a kid, my mom would often make my dad flip a coin five times and the guy would just keep on going. I can only surmise this because my dad is a super-obsessed craiger. One of the best ones I’ve ever seen was in a video game.
The video game game is a good example of the way a coin flip can be hard to play. One of my friends, a professional gamer, told me that he used to play video games just to practice with his coin flips. So by the time I was in college, I was thinking he might be right.
I’m still trying to figure out how it’s possible that a coin has a mind of its own. I’ve had my coin flipped many times in my life, and even when I was younger I was always able to predict the outcome. And it was always a head. I still can’t believe I’m still able to do it.
That’s what it feels like to me. A coin can’t even move in a way that you can anticipate what will happen next. Its just a random thing that happens to change everything. I know I can predict how things are going to end up, but I can’t predict how it is going to start.
The coin is a random number generator. And because of this, we can say that the first flip of a coin has no meaning. The second flip will be the same. The third flip will be different. And then the fourth flip will be the same again, and so on and so on. How much longer can you go without knowing the outcome of the first flip? It is impossible to predict the future.
This is true even for you. So even though the past two flips of the coin are “the same,” the odds of it being the same are 0.000005. And that is why you are so confident that you will win. Because of how unlikely it is, you can predict the outcomes of the next five flips just as surely as you could predict the outcome of the first five flips. This is called probabilistic reasoning.
Probability is the tendency to act in accordance with the majority of available evidence. What is the probability that the last five flips made the same result? That is 0.00005. So you are 95.5% confident that you will win.
And you’re right. In fact, you’re right 95.5 of the time.